First things first: the Houston Rockets are in trouble. The best prospect on their summer league team is either Chase Budinger or Joey Dorsey. Enough said there. And when you combine that with the fact that there’s a real possibility that Shane Battier is going to be their best player during the season, I’d say it’s going to be a long season for the Rockets and their fans.

The Warriors’ outlook is a little brighter. Their summer league team has three legitimate prospects—Anthony Randolph, Stephen Curry and Anthony Morrow—and they have at least one player on their team who is better than Shane Battier.

But on to the game.

Morrow was out with a sprained ankle so you had to figure Randolph and Curry would do the bulk of the heavy lifting. And they did. Both players came out extremely aggressive in the first quarter.

It didn’t take long for Randolph to show why people are so high on him. He had twelve points in the first quarter, with the points coming on a variety of post moves on the block and jumpers. He waited until the second quarter to put someone on a poster. It also didn’t take long for the announcers to start saying that spectators were watching a “a future star” who can “pretty much do anything he wants if his mind is in the right place.”

That said, Randolph also showed why he’s nowhere near a finished product and why he caused Nellie to drink six post-game scotches instead of four last year. He was out of control with the ball every other time down the floor, he turned the ball over and he bit on average pump fakes from average basketball players while trying to block every shot someone threw up (you can get ten fouls in summer league and he picked up 9.)

TMac: 22.1 pts/ 6.1 rebs/ 4.7 asts/ 1.2 stls/ 43.6 fg%/ 33.9 3 pt%/ 74.9 ft%/ 1.20 points per shot/ 2.04 ast to turnover ratio

Jack: 20.1 pts/ 4.9 rebs/ 6.2 asts/ 1.6 stls/ 40.4 fg%/ 33.0 3 pt%/ 80.9 ft%/ 1.20 points per shot/ 1.63 ast to turnover ratio

As usual with Nellie, there’s a circus tent covering his decision. Is he not playing him because he didn’t want him on draft day? Is he not playing him b/c the small lineups he prefers have no use for forwards who can’t score? Is he not playing him b/c he just doesn’t like rookies?

First, let’s look at how much Randolph is actually playing. Here’s a breakdown of the minutes played per game for the top 20 picks in the 2008 draft:

Derrick Rose: 36.8
Michael Beasley: 24.6
OJ Mayo: 37.9
Russell Westbrook: 31.5
Kevin Love: 23.3
Danilo Gallinari: 14.5
Eric Gordon: 32.6
Joe Alexander: 11.8
DJ Augustin: 28.4
Brook Lopez: 30.0
Jerryd Bayless: 14.4
Jason Thompson: 25.9
Brandan Rush: 20.8
Anthony Randolph: 12.8
Robin Lopez: 11.2
Marresse Speights: 15.3
Roy Hibbert: 11.7
JaVale McGee: 14.8
JJ Hickson: 11.8
Alexis Ajinca: 6.3

Looking at that, it’s not like Nellie is burying the kid. He’s played about the same minutes as about half of the rookies in his class, and when you factor in his age (he’s the youngest player in the NBA) and the fact that he was last pick in the lotto, it’s not an unreasonable amount of playing time on the surface.

How is he playing when he does get minutes? Has he earned more minutes in the ones he’s played?

I think even the most ardent Randolph supporter would agree that he is an extremely erratic player at this point in his career. He is simply not a good offensive player yet: he averages twice as many turnovers as assists and he averages fewer than 1 point per shot, the latter stat being something only a handful of NBA players do (another one of the few doing it this season is Baron Davis.) He is not a good individual defender but he has shown an ability to block shots as a help defender and he has a pretty solid rebound rate. These skills are probably the best defense the people who want Randolph to play more have considering shot-blocking and rebounding are not exactly in abundance on this team.

There are also questions about Randolph’s work ethic and attitude. There were questions about Randolph’s attitude coming into the league and Nellie has said that he isn’t working as hard as he should be in practice. No rookie should be gifted minutes and if he isn’t putting in his work it’s hard to argue that he should be playing more than he is.

Hopefully Nellie isn’t keeping him on the bench just to prove a point, though. He’s always said that he will play rookies if they’re ready to play—using guys like Mullin, Richmond & Hardaway as examples—but the problem with that is almost no rookies today are ready to play. You almost never get a rookie who has played 4 years of college—like each member of Run TMC—and is ready to contribute immediately. Today you get guys like Randolph, talented guys who aren’t ready but need to be brought along and given some room to make mistakes on the court. Not to mention that when you’re 20 games under .500 you might as well play the young guys. Developing young, raw players is part of the job description of an NBA head coach today, especially if you’re coaching a bad team. Is Nellie the right man for that job?

CJ: First, I want to thank God for allowing me to be here and talking to you today.

OW: We’re happy to have you. So, now that the team is about at the all-star break, what are some of your thoughts on the season?

CJ: We’re getting our stride together. Monta is getting back to Monta, we’re learning how to play with Jamal and Corey and everyone, we’re starting to look like the team we were the last couple of years.

OW: Do you guys still talk playoffs or are you playing for next year a little bit?

CJ: Why not?

OW: Being 12 games out doesn’t discourage you?

CJ: Nah, we have a lot of games to play.

OW: As a team leader, can I ask you if you have any feelings on the Anthony Randolph situation? With him and Nellie, him firing his agent over playing time, etc…

CJ: That’s my little brother. He’s going to be fine. It’s tough for everyone to adjust to being a pro, how hard you have to work, he’ll grow up a bit and work on his game and be fine. He’s got everything he needs right now but time.

OW: Do you think he and Nellie can co-exist?

CJ: Oh yeah, that’s all noise.

OW: You’ve been putting up some huge numbers lately. Is it fair to say you’re playing your best ball of the season right now?

CJ: I think so. With our whole roster together it’s easier for me to do what I do and not trying to do much for everyone else.

OW: Where’s the party tonight? Where we going?

CJ: Where we going? You stayin’ home. I’m meeting up with Jay (Jason Richardson—ed.) and them over in the city.

OW: Thought I’d try. (Laughs.)

CJ: No problem. I’m ok with that.

OQ: Thanks again and keep it up on the court.

CJ: God is great.

But is this a bad thing? As much as I like Mullin, his record as a GM was mixed at best, and the teams he complied never made the playoffs until Nellie started coaching them (and until Nellie encouraged him to make the crucial Jackson and Harrington for Murphleavy trade.) As much grief as Robert Rowell gets, all he really did was transfer power from Mullin to Nelson.

And say what you want about the idiosyncrasies of Nellie the coach, Nellie the GM has a very sound record. His draft history is among the best there is, especially relative to his draft position, his trades as a whole are respectable and he has rarely given up on a player who has then gone on to do anything in the league. After taking over personnel and coaching duties of the Bucks and Mavericks he left them in much better shape than when he took over. He also resurrected some other team he coached in the late 80’s and early 90’s as well (before destroying them, of course.)

Nellie is now responsible for the direction of this team. The off-season moves were not made without his input, nor was the Jamal Crawford trade. And everyone knows he is going to play who he wants when he wants.

As good of a coach as Nellie is, there’s no way he or any coach could win with a roster that’s ten-deep with Stephen Jackson, Monta Ellis, Jamal Crawford, Andris Biedrins, Corey Maggette, Kelenna Azubuike, Ronny Turiaf, CJ Watson, Brandan Wright & Anthony Morrow. That’s a 36-win team if everything breaks right. It’s also a roster with some solid veterans that could help a contender and some good young players and prospects, especially if you add Anthony Randolph. The problem is, it’s a team of redundant players that don’t fit together or compliment each other; the whole is less than the sum of its parts.

It’s up to Nellie the GM to take this broken mess and make it whole. Again.

They have Pabst on tap here and if you feel like poking irony’s corpse feel free to get one. I ordered a shot of Jameson and a Fat Tire and sat down at the far end of the half-moon bar, next to the fake brick lining the back wall and next to the free popcorn and Sriracha (both a nice touch.)

There were only guys in the building, of course, 5 o’clock drunks and worse, and I settled in easily. The jukebox is pretty boring here, mostly traditional bar rock and r&b selections so I decided to drink by myself in peace, just the way I like it, until some guy put on a series of increasingly average Queens of the Stone Age songs.

I stayed for about 30 minutes and watched people move in and out pretty regularly. This place has always been more crowded that you think it’s going to be. The bartender was attentive but not annoying.

All in all, a good bar. I’ll be back soon. Earlier the next time, always earlier.

The game: Ohio State Buckeyes (14-5) @ Indiana Hoosiers (5-14.)

The result: Ohio State 93-81.

Mullens, the top-ranked big-man prospect in the 2008-09 freshman class at the beginning of the year and a consensus lottery pick if he declares, came into the game averaging 9.4 points, 4.6 rebounds and 1.3 blocks a game.

What he did well:

• Move. He’s not a stiff. He has good speed, quickness and agility for a 7 footer.
• Weak-side defense. He showed good anticipation off the ball and was a capable team defender.

What he didn’t do well:

• Everything else. He didn’t impact the game at all, and if he wasn’t such a highly-touted prospect, his name would never have been mentioned. He floated. He didn’t rebound, he didn’t work hard to establish position before he got the ball on offense or do anything when he did get get it.

The Verdict: Rotation big man. Most teams can use one of those, but any team expecting to get a star (which is what he was supposed to be) will be disappointed.

And even that is fine. I don’t expect franchises to make winning their only goal. It would be nice for the fans if they did but I don’t expect them to. I don’t expect them to operate at a loss. It’s perfectly reasonable to factor in business and salary decisions when constructing a basketball team.

But there is a fine line between using business sense to inform a basketball decision and making a basketball decision that doesn’t acknowledge that basketball has its own set of business standards.

We first saw this with the protracted negotiation for a contract extension between Baron Davis and the Warriors. Davis, as mercurial and injury-prone a player as there is in the league, was always going to be a difficult player to plan the future of a franchise around. The Warriors were understandably nervous about giving him a long-term contract as he moved into his thirties.

Rowell’s solution was to essentially offer Baron a non-guaranteed contract. The front-end of the contract would be guaranteed and the back-end would be guaranteed only if Baron reached certain incentive clauses related to games played.

This sounds reasonable enough. The problem is it’s simply not how the NBA works. Incentive-laden contracts are rarely if ever given out to bench players, let alone to a player of Baron’s stature. And no agent would have seriously considered Rowell’s offer, let alone accepted it.

And now Baron Davis, the best player the Warriors have had in over a decade and the only player to lead the Warriors to the playoffs in over a decade, plays for the Clippers.

Rowell’s next tough decision was dealing with the Monta Ellis injury. When the truth finally came out there was a disagreement in the front office as to how aggressively to punish him, with Chris Mullin on the more lenient side and Rowell on the more severe side. Rowell won the battle, of course, and Ellis was essentially fined $3,000,000 for breach of contract. This was a stiff penalty. By contrast, Vladimir Radmanovich of the Lakers was fined $500,000 for the same breach of contract. It was also well within their rights. They could have voided the entire deal but they chose the fine instead.

And once they made the decision to fine him and not void the contract, that should have been the end of it. The focus should have shifted entirely to getting him healthy and back on the court as soon as possible, especially b/c Monta became the nominal franchise player when Baron left.

But that’s not what happened. By all accounts Monta was physically able to play at least two weeks before he actually came back (displayed most famously when he screamed “Let me play!” to noone in particular after dunking a ball in practice.) The reason his return was delayed was the Warriors were again engaged in some almost unprecedented contract discussion with regard to how contracts work in the NBA. What Rowell wanted to do was fine Ellis, then monitor how he looked after he came back and then decide whether or not to void his contract. Ellis’s agent was understandably hesitant to have his client play with essentially a non-guaranteed contract.

Ellis did come back, though. And from a fan’s perspective, at least he only missed a handful of games when he could have played. Ah, the small victories of a Warrior fan.

The problem is that apparently the Warriors are still withholding the right to terminate his contract if he doesn’t come all the way back from his injury. It’s hard to see how this unusually punitive decision doesn’t damage the relationship between the Warriors and their franchise player. It would also be hard to blame Monta if he was more cautious than usual on the court to protect himself from injury.

I have no problem with a business man running the Warriors; I just wish the man running the Warriors understood the business of the NBA.

Azubuike: Has turned himself into a nice rotation player. Doesn’t look to do much other than score, but he’s a good shooter and a good finisher at the bucket.

Belinelli: Finally got a chance to play and looked pretty good. Probably not as good a shooter as he was advertised to be but also probably a better playmaker. Rocky! Rocky! Rocky!

Biedrins: Keeps working and keeps getting better. Still not a plus interior defender and his post moves are rudimentary at best, but he’s only 22 and already a borderline all-star. He also looks like he might have what it takes to break Mullin’s franchise record of keeping one out-of-fashion hairstyle for the longest amount of time.

Crawford: Can’t complain too much about getting him for Harrington. Having another ballhandler next to Monta will help and he can get as hot as anyone in the league. He also takes terrible shots and plays no defense. Welcome to the Warriors.

Ellis: Has really been stepping up his street clothes game on the bench, especially in the earring department. I’m pretty sure he wore The Jewel of the Nile to the last game.

Jackson: Bad shot, turnover, argue with ref instead of getting back on D. Lather, rinse, repeat. He also competes and cares and is the best all-around player on the team.

Kurz: Nellie’s token white jump-shooting forward. I resent his very presence on the team.

Maggette: Missed 19 of the first 41 games. One of the most efficient scorers in the league when healthy. In other words, Corey Maggette. Still not sure why the Warriors thought that was worth $50 million.

Morrow: Another solid undrafted discovery. The best shooter on the team.

Randolph: Talented, but nowhere near ready to be a consistent contributor. Might be the worst offensive player in the league at this point, but he does rebound and block shots. Hopefully he will get consistent minutes in the 2nd half of the season.

Turiaf: Blocks a ton of shots, but often at the expense of being in good defensive and/or rebounding position. Not sure why the Warriors thought this team needed a $5 million backup center but still he fills a unique void on the team.

Watson: Solid backup point guard. Could look to distribute more.

Williams: A symbol of the organization’s dysfunction. Acquired for a 1st-round pick, the only true point guard on a team desperate for a point guard, he’s played spot minutes in just 8 games. He’s either the worst player in the NBA or Nellie is making an example out of him.

Wright: A finesse player who doesn’t rebound well for his position, but also a forward who can finish on the break and around the rim and block a shot. Very promising player if you value John Hollinger’s PER ratings.