In another lost season for the Warriors, one of the few things left worth debating and following is the emergence (or lack thereof) of Anthony Randolph. On one side are the fans who think Randolph is a special talent (not to mention Ric Bucher, who called him “potentially a top-10 player in the NBA”) and want to see him play as many minutes as possible and on the other is Don Nelson, who says he likes Randolph as a prospect (and that Bucher’s statement was “the most ridiculous thing I’ve ever heard”) but that he’s a 19 year-old kid who’s not ready to help the Warriors win who needs to earn, not be given, additional minutes.

As usual with Nellie, there’s a circus tent covering his decision. Is he not playing him because he didn’t want him on draft day? Is he not playing him b/c the small lineups he prefers have no use for forwards who can’t score? Is he not playing him b/c he just doesn’t like rookies?

First, let’s look at how much Randolph is actually playing. Here’s a breakdown of the minutes played per game for the top 20 picks in the 2008 draft:

Derrick Rose: 36.8
Michael Beasley: 24.6
OJ Mayo: 37.9
Russell Westbrook: 31.5
Kevin Love: 23.3
Danilo Gallinari: 14.5
Eric Gordon: 32.6
Joe Alexander: 11.8
DJ Augustin: 28.4
Brook Lopez: 30.0
Jerryd Bayless: 14.4
Jason Thompson: 25.9
Brandan Rush: 20.8
Anthony Randolph: 12.8
Robin Lopez: 11.2
Marresse Speights: 15.3
Roy Hibbert: 11.7
JaVale McGee: 14.8
JJ Hickson: 11.8
Alexis Ajinca: 6.3

Looking at that, it’s not like Nellie is burying the kid. He’s played about the same minutes as about half of the rookies in his class, and when you factor in his age (he’s the youngest player in the NBA) and the fact that he was last pick in the lotto, it’s not an unreasonable amount of playing time on the surface.

How is he playing when he does get minutes? Has he earned more minutes in the ones he’s played?

I think even the most ardent Randolph supporter would agree that he is an extremely erratic player at this point in his career. He is simply not a good offensive player yet: he averages twice as many turnovers as assists and he averages fewer than 1 point per shot, the latter stat being something only a handful of NBA players do (another one of the few doing it this season is Baron Davis.) He is not a good individual defender but he has shown an ability to block shots as a help defender and he has a pretty solid rebound rate. These skills are probably the best defense the people who want Randolph to play more have considering shot-blocking and rebounding are not exactly in abundance on this team.

There are also questions about Randolph’s work ethic and attitude. There were questions about Randolph’s attitude coming into the league and Nellie has said that he isn’t working as hard as he should be in practice. No rookie should be gifted minutes and if he isn’t putting in his work it’s hard to argue that he should be playing more than he is.

Hopefully Nellie isn’t keeping him on the bench just to prove a point, though. He’s always said that he will play rookies if they’re ready to play—using guys like Mullin, Richmond & Hardaway as examples—but the problem with that is almost no rookies today are ready to play. You almost never get a rookie who has played 4 years of college—like each member of Run TMC—and is ready to contribute immediately. Today you get guys like Randolph, talented guys who aren’t ready but need to be brought along and given some room to make mistakes on the court. Not to mention that when you’re 20 games under .500 you might as well play the young guys. Developing young, raw players is part of the job description of an NBA head coach today, especially if you’re coaching a bad team. Is Nellie the right man for that job?